The idea of ​​carrying out a new “big privatization” in Russia was considered unpromising and unsafe

The Finance Ministry confirmed that this initiative is being developed, estimating potential budget revenues at between 100 billion and 300 billion rubles. Earlier, the head of the department, Anton Siluanov, reported that revenues from “large privatization” would amount to 100 billion rubles this year. In particular, state-owned companies may be put up for sale, in which, according to the minister, “inefficient use of property” will be identified. Meanwhile, to a greater extent, we are talking about another task – obtaining an additional source of income for the deficit-ridden federal treasury, and not about saving money or minimizing losses. It is generally accepted that a private owner manages money and capacity more wisely than the state, but this is clearly not the case now.

According to official data, in 2024, the privatization of property received by the budget, including by court decisions, brought in 132 billion rubles. About half of the amount came from the sale of a number of chemical enterprises. As Siluanov noted in March 2025, since 2022 the Ministry of Finance has been forming a list of objects for privatization, which made it possible to sell 1,300 treasury objects last year.

"A small group of theorists"

In the previous two years, the topic of new mass privatization has been repeatedly raised at the highest level. In particular, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullin said that privatization would have a positive effect on the economy, and that in Russia "there is something to privatize without damaging strategic interests." The heads of the largest state banks Andrei Kostin and German Gref expressed the opinion that the new stage of privatization will help solve the problem of structural restructuring of the economy, will make it possible to find money to restart a number of industries and strengthen defense capability. The Kremlin, in turn, stated that the issue has always been on the agenda, the main thing in it is profitability, and that state property "is not squandered for a pittance."

One of the most active promoters and lobbyists of the idea was the President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Alexander Shokhin, according to whom (voiced in 2023), mass privatization in the banking and industrial sectors will bring the country hundreds of billions of rubles, and businesses will not "squander" state property, but will effectively manage it. The measure would help fill the budget without raising taxes and returning to a one-time collection of excess profits from previous years (windfall tax). Shokhin also sarcastically noted that the authorities are not ready to part with "tasty morsels", they are not averse to transferring obviously unprofitable state and municipal unitary enterprises to entrepreneurs - something that "no one needs - neither the state nor business."

Meanwhile, the very concept of “privatization” evokes negative emotions among a considerable number of older Russians, connected with the events of the 1990s: vouchers, check funds, Chubais....

"The impression is that historically this large-scale undertaking in Russia has been handled by a narrow group of theorists," says economist and top manager in the field of financial communications Andrey Loboda. "At one time, their work resulted in default and a crisis state of public finances. We all remember the patterns of the IMF and other Western institutions, according to which privatization took place. Today, the period for its new wave is economically unattractive. The value of the stock market in the Russian Federation is underestimated by at least 1.5-2 times, the outflow of capital from the Russian jurisdiction has not been stopped, this topic is not even a priority on the agenda of monetary authorities. The rate of economic growth is falling, we have a structural crisis."

According to Loboda, privatization will not radically solve the problem of filling the budget, increasing the money supply and accelerating GDP growth; for this, it is necessary to actively finance the real sector.

"The return is symbolic"

"The new wave of privatization currently being discussed in Russia looks more like a political and economic signal than a large-scale reform program," says financial analyst Igor Rastorguev. "Despite statements about the potential sale of shares in the largest state-owned companies, there are currently no real prerequisites for large-scale privatization. Firstly, in the context of sanctions pressure, the increased role of the state in the economy and limited access to foreign markets, the authorities are unlikely to sell truly strategic assets, such as Gazprom or Russian Railways. These companies play a key role not only in budget formation, but also in ensuring political control over the economy."

Secondly, Alexander Shokhin's idea to involve citizens' funds in bank deposits in privatization looks dubious. People prefer savings instruments with guaranteed returns. For individuals to start buying up shares of state-owned enterprises en masse, high trust, investor protection and a clear return model are needed, which is not yet the case. Especially given the volatility of the stock market and the limited instruments for protecting minority shareholders.

"Most likely, if the "wave" of privatization is implemented, it will be in the form of selling insignificant, non-core assets - regional state unitary enterprises, municipal property, shares in second- and third-tier enterprises," Rastorguev suggests. "Such small-scale privatization can give the budget 100-300 billion rubles, as the Ministry of Finance claims, but against the background of the general expenses of the federal treasury, this is a symbolic amount. In addition, the process itself may drag on, and will not yield significant macroeconomic returns."

“The situation is not comparable to the events of the 1990s”

Traditionally, two results are expected from privatization: improved property management (it is believed that a private owner is more efficient) and additional funds for the treasury. But now the first task is not being addressed, since the state desperately needs money. As Igor Nikolaev, chief research fellow at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, reminds us, the government approved amendments at a meeting on April 30 that provide for a significant increase in the budget deficit - up to 1.7% of GDP by the end of the year instead of 0.5% of GDP. The main incentive is thus obvious.

"But there is also a danger," Nikolaev notes. "A year ago, Siluanov voiced a conceptual idea according to which the state would first turn private enterprises into state property, and only then would put these objects up for privatization and resell them. This kind of practice has already existed. In fact, this means the redistribution of property from one hand to another, which is quite a strong disincentive and frightening for business. There is no point in counting on any investments in the economy, and entrepreneurs will take a wait-and-see attitude."

According to the source of MK, it is not worth comparing what is happening with the situation in the 1990s: back then, 90% of all fixed production assets were state-owned, while today it is 15%. That is, the ownership structure is fundamentally different. And back then, in the 1990s, privatization (and truly mass privatization, unlike today's) was carried out precisely for the sake of changing this structure, so that the private sector could get back on its feet, become stronger, and start working. From a financial point of view, the state has achieved little. And now the number one goal is additional money.

"For many Russians, privatization is something dirty and unfair, referring, in particular, to the scandalous collateral auctions of the 1990s," Nikolaev summarizes. "Distrust of it remains to this day. And I find it hard to believe that ordinary people, especially in conditions of general high uncertainty, a slowdown in the economy, will invest in shares of large companies, spend money from their deposits on this, as the head of the RSPP would like. This is only a pious wish, and I think this will remain the lot of professional investors. The stock market sometimes rises, sometimes falls, it is still extremely volatile, there are not many reasons for optimism."